Some interesting NFL draft data on the quarterback position are in this article.
History isn’t on Simpson’s side
The 2026 QB class is so watered down, as name after name decided to stay in college for another year, that it may not even compare to the 2025 group, which saw Cam Ward taken No. 1 overall and Jaxson Dart lasting until pick No. 25, when the Giants moved back into the first round to grab him.
But unlike Ward and Dart, who had 57 and 41 career college starts, [Ty] Simpson is as green as they come. In fact, since 2010, 51 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. Of those, only Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Anthony Richardson and Cam Newton made fewer than 15 career Division I starts. And Newton, who won the Heisman Trophy and led Auburn to the national title in his only season with the Tigers, had started 12 games the season before at Blinn Community College.
But unlike Ward and Dart, who had 57 and 41 career college starts, Simpson is as green as they come. In fact, since 2010, 51 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. Of those, only Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Anthony Richardson and Cam Newton made fewer than 15 career Division I starts. And Newton, who won the Heisman Trophy and led Auburn to the national title in his only season with the Tigers, had started 12 games the season before at Blinn Community College.
Other names to consider: Kyler Murray made 17 starts between Texas A&M and Oklahoma, and Trey Lance, who didn’t play his final college season at FCS North Dakota State because of COVID, also made just 17 starts in college.
The sweet spot for NFL success is at least 25-30 college starts, because it allows for reps – and a lot of them – which is exactly how good quarterbacks become great ones. Joe Burrow was just a guy at Ohio State before playing his final two years at LSU and going No. 1 overall in the same draft class as Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.
Reduce those starts and reps by 50 percent, and history suggests that desperate teams will find themselves overdrafting names like Mitch Trubisky and Anthony Richardson with top 5 picks.
It’s telling that already some players are opting all the more to “stay in school” rather than to go to the NFL, and they are no doubt doing so because they are making some decent money versus the higher risk of leaving the NCAA too early and lowering their status for their NFL rookie contract.